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The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) plays a critical role in linking the middle and upper atmosphere. However, many General Circulation Models do not model the MLT and those that do remain poorly constrained. We use long‐term meteor radar observations (2005–2021) from Rothera (67°S, 68°W) on the Antarctic Peninsula to evaluate the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension (WACCM‐X) and investigate interannual variability. We find some significant differences between WACCM‐X and observations. In particular, at upper heights, observations reveal eastwards wintertime (April–September) winds, whereas the model predicts westwards winds. In summer (October–March), the observed winds are northwards but predictions are southwards. Both the model and observations reveal significant interannual variability. We characterize the trend and the correlation between the winds and key phenomena: (a) the 11‐year solar cycle, (b) El Niño Southern Oscillation, (c) Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and (d) Southern Annular Mode using a linear regression method. Observations of the zonal wind show significant changes with time. The summertime westwards wind near 80 km is weakening by up to 4–5 ms⁻¹per decade, whilst the eastward wintertime winds around 85–95 km are strengthening at by around 7 ms⁻¹per decade. We find that at some times of year there are significant correlations between the phenomena and the observed/modeled winds. The significance of this work lies in quantifying the biases in a leading General Circulation Model and demonstrating notable interannual variability in both modeled and observed winds.

Atmospheric predictability from subseasonal to seasonal time scales and climate variability are both influenced critically by gravity waves (GW). The quality of regional and global numerical models relies on thorough understanding of GW dynamics and its interplay with chemistry, precipitation, clouds, and climate across many scales. For the foreseeable future, GWs and many other relevant processes will remain partly unresolved, and models will continue to rely on parameterizations. Recent model intercomparisons and studies show that present-day GW parameterizations do not accurately represent GW processes. These shortcomings introduce uncertainties, among others, in predicting the effects of climate change on important modes of variability. However, the last decade has produced new data and advances in theoretical and numerical developments that promise to improve the situation. This review gives a survey of these developments, discusses the present status of GW parameterizations, and formulates recommendations on how to proceed from there.

The satellite‐based Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observed concentric gravity waves (GWs) generated by Typhoon Yutu in late October 2018. This work compares CIPS and AIRS nadir viewing observations of GWs at altitudes of 50–55 and 30–40 km, respectively, to simulations from the high‐resolution European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF‐IFS) and ECMWF reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Both ECMWF‐IFS with 9 km and ERA5 with 31 km horizontal resolution show concentric GWs at similar locations and timing as the AIRS and CIPS observations. The GW wavelengths are ∼225–236 km in ECMWF‐IFS simulations, which compares well with the wavelength inferred from the observations. After validation of ECMWF GWs, five category five typhoon events during 2018 are analyzed using ECMWF to obtain characteristics of concentric GWs in the Western Pacific regions. The amplitudes of GWs in the stratosphere are not strongly correlated with the strength of typhoons, but are controlled by background wind conditions. Our results confirm that amplitudes and shapes of concentric GWs observed in the stratosphere and lowermost mesosphere are heavily influenced by the background wind conditions.

We conducted simulations with a 4‐km resolution for Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model. The model data are used to study stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) generated by the hurricane and how they correlate with hurricane intensity. The simulation results show spiral GWs propagating upward and anticlockwise away from the hurricane center. GWs with vertical wavelengths up to 14 km are generated. We find that GW activity is more frequent and intense during hurricane intensification than during weakening, particularly for the most intense GW activity. There are significant correlations between the change of stratospheric GW intensity and hurricane intensity. Therefore, the emergence of intensive stratospheric GW activity may be considered a useful proxy for identifying hurricane intensification.

Four state-of-the-science numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were used to perform mountain wave (MW)-resolving hindcasts over the Drake Passage of a 10-day period in 2010 with numerous observed MW cases. The Integrated Forecast System (IFS) and the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model were run at Δx≈ 9 and 13 km globally. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were both configured with a Δx= 3-km regional domain. All domains had tops near 1 Pa (z≈ 80 km). These deep domains allowedquantitativevalidation against Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations, accounting for observation time, viewing geometry, and radiative transfer. All models reproduced observed middle-atmosphere MWs with remarkable skill. Increased horizontal resolution improved validations. Still, all models underrepresented observed MW amplitudes, even after accounting for model effective resolution and instrument noise, suggesting even at Δx≈ 3-km resolution, small-scale MWs are underresolved and/or overdiffused. MW drag parameterizations are still necessary in NWP models at current operational resolutions of Δx≈ 10 km. Upper GW sponge layers in the operationally configured models significantly, artificially reduced MW amplitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. In the IFS, parameterized GW drags partly compensated this deficiency, but still, total drags were ≈6 times smaller than that resolved at Δx≈ 3 km. Meridionally propagating MWs significantly enhance zonal drag over the Drake Passage. Interestingly, drag associated with meridional fluxes of zonal momentum (i.e.,) were important; not accounting for these terms results in a drag in the wrong direction at and below the polar night jet.